Potomac Fever is the blog of the Hamilton College Semester in Washington Program.
I’m hesitant to say that US unemployment inching down to 9% is a real improvement. Since 1940, no incumbent president has been re-elected with an approval rating of above 7.5%. As for Obama’s approval ratings, I think they are still a bit low. Gallup Poll (Oct 24-30, 2011) has Obama sitting with a 43% approval rating--only 5% up from his all-time low. (his terms average was 50% and his low point was 38%).
the recent weeks are trending in the right directions!
If the election was today, do you think he would win? (I have no idea, I think there's a really good chance)
I think he would win today. Not necessarily because he would draw a majority of the votes, but because he'd get more than any of the GOP candidates.Whoever the nominee ends up being, they'll need the next year to build themselves up.
Obama is currently beating all Republican candidates in head-to-head polls, although admittedly his lead on Romney is narrow and loses by a few points to "Generic Republican":http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html
Hmm that address didn't paste right... try this
A little premature on the things looking up sentiment but generally good news for us Dems. I would caution labeling a drop of .1% as improvement or movement towards a "recovering" economy. If you remember I believe it was only in July when we were actually below 9% unemployment. Things are still very precarious and this months job numbers could be equally as unimpressive. I think the best thing going for us right now is the dysfunctional candidate pool for Republicans. Just look at the top runner stats for Republicans. It changes every month basically, Republicans have yet to unite behind a single candidate, and they are going to need someone really inspiring to make Americans take a leap of faith on the tired Republican economic plan (tax cuts for the rich)http://www.economist.com/node/21536603B
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