Monday, November 14, 2011
I read this very interesting article in The Economist today about the changing demographic trends in our country. By 2050 the U.S. population is projected to no longer be a majority white nation. The Latino population is supposed to double in size from 15% to 30% and Asian-Americans and African-Americans are supposed to account for 24% of the total population. These changing trends will be a significant boost to Democrats because these minority groups tend to support progressive political candidates (in 2008 80% of minorities backed Obama over McCain).
The article also notes that by the end of the decade 90million voters will be from the millennial generation (born between 1978 and 2000) which will also be a significant boost to Democratic chances as young voters tend to vote Democratic. However, this number may be deceiving as the young are also increasingly detached from politics and have abysmal voting records. Interest in the 2008 campaign from this young cohort was at 28% whereas today it only stands at 13%. To conclude, changing demographic trends seem to indicate that an "elusive" progressive majority might become the face of America's electoral composition in the near future. But that majority is still a ways away and Mr. Obama's chances at re-election seem more precarious than ever.