Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Brown vs. Warren

Since I've posted a couple of times about the race between incumbent Senator Scott Brown and challenger Elizabeth Warren in Masssachusetts, I thought I'd provide the most recent update. A new Boston Globe poll has the two candidates in a statistical tie: Brown has 37 percent of the vote and Warren has 35 percent of the vote, with a margin of error of 4.2 percent. Right now, 26 percent of voters have still declared themselves undecided.

Though the race looks extremely close between them, Brown seems to still have the advantage in important categories. Brown is leading Warren 3-to-1 among independents, who could be the swing vote in this election cycle. Brown is also considered the more likeable candidate, with 57 percent of votes versus Warren's 23 percent of votes that consider her more likeable. Finally, and perhaps most significantly, Brown is seen as more bipartisan than Warren: this means that they believe he would be better at working with members of the opposite party, which is crucial in these trying times.

I think that this seat is one that the Republicans must keep if they want any chance at taking the Senate. Massachusetts is obviously one of the most liberal states in the country, and Brown is the only Republican that currently holds national office from Massachusetts. If the Republicans lose Scott Brown, they lose a potentially major bargainer for their party. Though 27 percent of voters in the poll think that Brown votes independently of his party, I know for a fact that the Republican party would much rather have him representing Massachusetts than the working-class champion Elizabeth Warren.


Dylan Wulderk said...

Good news for Warren is that of the undecided voters, the vast majority are Democrats. Can't cite where I read that, but I remember seeing it just yesterday. When push comes to shove, they'll probably go her way.

But I agree with all your points, too.

Eric Boole said...

Interesting post Cris, especially for me. I consider myself independent, and did indeed vote for Scott Brown when he first ran for office. However, I believe Warren brings some solid qualities and skills to the table, and would be a valuable addition for the Democratic senate. What I am trying to say is that your post was spot on--my vote is completely up for the taking. Time to convince me Brown or Warren!

TJE said...

Grasshoppers for Warren!