Tuesday, February 21, 2012

This Could Get Messy

Since Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in December of last year, saber rattling and veiled threats have become a daily occurrence. The sailing of the Abraham Lincoln into the gulf and Iranian naval war games amount to little more than posturing, both Iran and the U.S. understand that open conflict would be detrimental to everyone involved. This is why the United States is depending on increasingly harsh sanctions and the Iranians are trying to maintain a position of strength from which to negotiate. The unknown variable in this equation is Israeli. They have already shown a willingness to unilaterally strike Iranian nuclear facilities and since the election of President Obama have been moving farther away from the United States. This separation only serves to make Israel less predictable. Iran is aware of this reality and has announced war games around its nuclear reactor near the port of Bushehr. Although I doubt that anyone truly wants this situations to spark an open conflict but if the tender box is lit Israel will be the spark.

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