Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Who else but Romney?

Despite a large amount of focus, a few remain convinced that Romney's nomination is anything but a done deal. Despite his leads in the polls and the much greater attention he's been receiving, it's too easy to point back to 2008 when Hillary and Rudy Giuliani were the presumptive nominees before falling to the men who would eventually make it on the ballot.

Looking at the candidates, does anyone want to venture guesses as to who will actually get the nomination? Is anyone looking to Cain? to Perry? one of the other candidates trailing in the polls?

9 comments:

Will Rusche said...

If I had to put down money, I would want to place my bet on a win for Michelle Bachmann in Iowa. Despite a few gaffes, I think she's still more than viable in her birth state where she won the straw poll a few weeks ago. Save a media disaster, she still has time to make a victory in Iowa happen, despite her trailing poll numbers nation wide.

Beaumont said...

While I don't disagree on Romney's likely nomination, I think it will be interesting to see who wins the key early states, and how that plays out. If Cain wins Florida, or I believe Huntsman is pouring a majority of his money into NH, where he is still neck-n-neck in the polls. If I remember correctly, McCain was behind before winning a couple of early states.

If I was betting I would bet Romney, but I think its still too early to early to rule out the power of the early primaries.

Will Rusche said...

I certainly agree. One of the only reasons I think Bachmann is still viable is because she has the opportunity to do well in Iowa. She will almost certainly do better than she is polling on a national level and this could be the wind she needs for her sails.

It was a victory in Iowa that got Obama's foot in the door for his eventual nomination.

If Romney doesn't win or does much poorer than expected in Iowa and NH, the game could completely change!

TJE said...

Hoping for Obama match up with someone other than Romney?

Will Rusche said...

At this point, I'd say I am. I do think we can expect a second term for Mr. Obama but Romney as the opponent would make it a much closer race.

I don't think any of the other candidates can make that claim at the moment. It'll be interesting to see if Republican voters put weight behind that in choosing the nominee.

TJE said...

Mitt more difficult to demonize than others. Sort of the generic Republican.

Will McCurry said...

But if Cain, or anyone else for that matter, pulls off a victory in Florida that could really sway things in his favor. Florida is where this primary is going to be decided, mark my words.

TJE said...

Cain has little $$$ and no organization.

Will Rusche said...

Well the top fundraisers didn't prevail in the 2008 GOP primaries so we shall see.

As always, the early states will be important and I think Romney has some reason to worry there. Although he's got broad appeal nationally, losses or even poor performance in those first few contests can easily end the seemingly strongest of campaigns