Monday, September 5, 2011

Question from Caroline

Will Obama Win Reelection in 2012?

With slightly over a year until the 2012 presidential elections, things are heating up. Many wonder if the Obama administrations main achievements (the 2009 stimulus package, healthcare bill, and financial reform bills) will override the nations high unemployment rate and increasing federal debt. These circumstances appear to give Republicans a good advantage over Obama. However, Obama does have several things in his favor. First and foremost, in the last century 12/17 incumbent presidents have won reelection. Furthermore, there is currently no obvious Republican frontrunner. In addition, Obama has a remarkable propensity to raise money, $750 million in the last election. Some experts have been speculating that he might successfully hit the $1 billion mark this time around.

The ultimate question remains whether the current economic climate will override historical odds and Obama’s achievements. What are your thoughts on the issue?

(Posted for Caroline by TJE)

1 comment:

Lachlan said...

Two points.

Your statistic regarding incumbent reelection is woefully imprecise. No post-war president has won reelection with unemployment above 8%. Obama is an incumbent, in other words, but that will work against him, not for him. Obama himself asked voters to hold him accountable for the state of the economy come election day, and they will do just that.

Two of the three "achievements" you cite are wildly unpopular with the American people. The Kaiser Family Foundation recently put Obamacare support at 39% and opposition at 44% - making the law as unpopuar as it's ever been, according to Kaiser. Rasmussen shows that Americans want the law repealed by a 57/37 margin. Only 29% of the American people, meanwhile, think that the stimulus helped the economy.

Americans aren't turning on Obama in spite of his "achievements," in other words; they're turning on him, in large measure, because of them.