Potomac Fever is the blog of the Hamilton College Semester in Washington Program.
While Romney remains ahead by roughly 5-7 points in the most recent polls, his lead is slipping after losing by a considerable margin in SC. And Sam, I think that's a poignant quote to highlight, that SC has elected the eventual winner in the last 30 years, but I think the most important takeaway from the primary (and bad news for Mitt) is his performance in the major demographics. Specifically, that he didn't win any. Further, his wins in some of the lesser categories were hardly convincing. And this is why Romney can no longer reasonably be considered the eventual winner for the Republican election, because he can't perform the same way in these major demographics over the next few months and presume to be safe.Granted, next month the election heads to Mitt-friendlier states, and the edge he has over Gingrich, as ever, is prime organization and funding, and doubts continue about Gingrich's ability to survive the long haul. So, I consider Mitt to no longer be the inevitable candidate but the probable one, but this is a pattern that needs to be repudiated in the coming month if Romney is to shore up his candidacy. This pattern of course, is that the electorate is wavering on his electability, after continuing attention paid to his history with Bain and his tax returns. And what's more, it's telling that Gingrich's comfortable win came only two days after the revelation of his request for an "open marriage," meaning that plenty of voters like the baggage-laden Gingrich more than Romney sans any recent scandals. Essentially, he needs to win the electorate over and show them how to feel comfortable ticking his name in the ballot. Any thoughts on how to do this going forward, or my response in general?
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