Potomac Fever is the blog of the Hamilton College Semester in Washington Program.
part of the problem is that the relationships, interaction effects, and size of those effects can literally change over time- not just when the economy is weak versus strong, but also when the economy is strong in 1970 versus strong in 2020. Still, economics remains in its (relative) infancy when it comes to macroeconomic predictive power. It's getting better, partly by incorporating the work of other disciplines like political science, or - harking back to Keynes' insights- sociology and psychology.
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