tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-373131336974671914.post7524822023566942012..comments2023-10-31T04:51:07.590-04:00Comments on Potomac Fever: Let's hope this is the floor...TJEhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16658864498584155557noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-373131336974671914.post-74120197773347417132011-06-09T00:21:14.004-04:002011-06-09T00:21:14.004-04:00http://www.frumforum.com/pawlentys-growth-rate-too...http://www.frumforum.com/pawlentys-growth-rate-too-good-to-be-truePLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11192623386934104687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-373131336974671914.post-83151271109985936052011-06-08T22:57:50.670-04:002011-06-08T22:57:50.670-04:00a) interesting characterization of Osama Bin Laden...a) interesting characterization of Osama Bin Laden's death. The implication being that Obama did it for political gain. Classy<br /><br />b) until reading this article, I had no idea that people were talking about Midwest Tornadoes affecting growth. Anyways, the worst headwind is the rising gas prices, which economists agree had a significant drag effect. The problems in Japan (natural disaster) and Europe (debt crisis) likely had some effect, though smaller than oil prices, and more likely limiting job creation as opposed to causing job destruction. The continued housing slump is problematic. That last part is important, because it's much harder to detect- particularly in the moment- what's affecting job creation. Even if BLS did find data supporting that causal story, I'd almost certainly reject it as a statistical aberration. Hence, the very limited quote Henninger gets from BLS is of almost no value. (I'll point out that I am concerned the economy is still too weak, below where it should be, and likely got worse a little bit last month. I just think the real problem is why the economy hasn't become self-perpetuating with growth at this point, not that last month's data is a sign that things are likely worsening permanently. The still too weak economy is worrisome because so many things could push us back into a recession at this point.)<br /><br />c) I don’t understand how anyone could say that Obama’s economic policy has solely been focused on the demand-side when he has passed hundreds of billions in supply-side tax cuts over the last few years as part of the stimulus and lame duck tax cut-UI extension deal. <br /><br />d) I agree that Pawlenty’s speech and ideas aren’t about coming up with a “provable” or credible agenda. It’s about lying to the American people about what you can achieve, or even come close to hoping to achieve, in terms of growth and how much any President or Congress can affect it.<br /><br />e) the difference between Pawlenty and Obama is not on theories of economic growth, it’s about the size of government (something which economists agree has a very modest- tenths of a percentage point- impact on growth). Obama wants government to be able to perform the same functions as it has for the last 50 years, even if the baby boom (and then rising health care costs) requires the big 3 entitlement programs be modified, while discretionary spending is cut to 1960’s historical levels and tax revenue levels be allowed to rise to make room for Obama’s acceptance that you can’t modify the big entitlement programs fast enough unless you want to massively shifts costs onto the elderly, disabled, and poor. Pawlenty wants to shrink the government by massively shifting health care costs onto the backs of the elderly, disabled, poor, and states through massive cuts to Medicare and Medicaid while cutting discretionary spending to pre- New Deal levels. This cutting of government enables him to pass trillions of tax cuts for corporations and wealthiest Americans. Pawlenty’s nonsense isn’t going to cause economic growth or newfound prosperity for the American middle-class (in fact, his restructuring would significantly hurt the middle-class), just as Obama’s economic policies aren’t going to CAUSE substantial economic growth- because government actions of any sort (getting bigger and investing or cutting back for the private sector) aren’t going to substantially juice the economy.PLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11192623386934104687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-373131336974671914.post-44282254293910661002011-06-08T20:14:19.614-04:002011-06-08T20:14:19.614-04:00http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527023044...http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304432304576371811156235004.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTopTJEhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16658864498584155557noreply@blogger.com